Seriously?!

Each week, I take on the sportsbooks in Vegas and make my picks in the NFL. After a quick start to the year (13-5 through Week 3), things have leveled out quite a bit. Fortunately, I’m still in the black with a 40-36 record. Don’t believe, I’ve documented every last game, which you’ll see below. But first, my picks for Week 14!

Atlanta -8 @ Carolina — Ryan’s Pick: Atlanta

I really hate going against home dogs, but this is the Carolina Panthers. They are 1-11 straight up and 3-9 against the spread. It doesn’t help that they’re playing arguably the best team in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons (10-2). The total has gone over in six of Atlanta’s last seven games, and that doesn’t bode well for the Panthers either. If there’s a lot of points in this one, Carolina won’t be scoring many of them.

Ryan’s main concern – How Jonathan got his groove back: Panthers’ running back Jonathan Stewart is getting the majority of the carries once again, taking the load off Mike Goodson. DeAngelo Williams is out for the season, and Stewart looked good last week, being a sneeze away from 100 yards and a touchdown. Stewart is a bit hard to figure out. I wouldn’t say he’s back to 2009 form, where he scored 10 touchdowns and surpassed the 1,000 yard mark, but he still remains a threat to this line in a home game.

Cleveland at Buffalo Pick — Ryan’s Pick: Buffalo

I love watching the Buffalo Bills (2-10), it’s just unfortunate that they can’t close games. They are 2-5 in their last seven, but that includes three overtime losses by a field goal and regulation loss… also by a field goal. This team’s ability to stay in games shows. They are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven games, with the only glaring ‘ATS” loss being the 38-14 blowout against the Vikings last week. This team will look to rebound, and they have the offensive weapons to do it. Stevie Johnson is the real deal, and I believe you’ll never see anything like that overtime touchdown drop against the Steelers from him again. Take Buffalo in the pick’em.

Ryan’s main concern – The other Peyton: There’s no telling what Browns running back Peyton Hillis is capable of from week-to-week. This fantasy monster has 11 touchdowns on the ground and two scores from the air. Not only is he the team’s leading rusher by far, he is tops in team receptions with 53. Make no mistake, Hillis is a gamechanger. Unfortunately, for the Browns, he’s the only one on their entire offense.

Miami @ New York Jets -6 — Ryan’s Pick: New York Jets

Rex Ryan and the New York Jets (9-3) embarrassed on Monday Night Football, and the Miami Dolphins (6-6) are not the New England Patriots (10-2). Losing a close game to Cleveland last week, the Dolphins couldn’t get their offense going at any point, with Brandon Marshall and Brian Hartline sidelined and ineffectiveness at quarterback. Even if Marshall plays, he hasn’t been the player we’ve seen in Denver, with only one receiving touchdown this year. He’ll also be stuck on Revis island… not looking good.

The Jets defense will be on point today, and may have a little help from the inclement weather expected. Mark Sanchez, despite the criticism often directed his way, has been more good than bad in his sophomore year. I expect the running game to take over with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene (in that order), and Santonio Holmes is always capable of making a big play.

Ryan’s main concern – Nothing to report: I expect the Jets to win this game by way more than six points. This has the potential to be the mismatch of the week.

And without further adieu, my betting record for 2010. Enjoy Week 14!