Tag Archive: Take Three


NFL Week 17: Take Three

"Oh yeah?! Well... if this flag was white, I would have thrown it a LONG time ago!"

Happy New Year! And happy NFL Sunday!

The Christmas holidays, combined with my commitment to NBC last week, prevented me from posting my Week 16 choices. I am happy to report, however, that I posted a 2-0 record last week!

I know what you’re saying. In fact, you may be saying a couple of things. One, there is no proof that I went 2-0. And two, this column is called “Take Three”, so I should have bet three games.

Well, I did. Pick number three was the Philadelphia Eagles giving two touchdowns to the Minnesota Vikings, but that game was declared a “no-action” as a result of the postponement from Sunday to Tuesday…

…whew.

Anyway, my Colts pick (-3) over the Raiders and the Pats (-9) over the Bills puts me at 44-37-0 for the year. I would love to get to ten games above .500 in the final week of the regular season, and so here is my attempt to do exactly that with my picks for Week 17! View full article »

NFL Week 15: Take Three

“No, dude. Listen. You don’t need your appendix to live…”

Each week, I take on the sportsbooks in Vegas and make my picks in the NFL. It was a 2-1 week for me (42-37 overall) in Week 14 after Rex Ryan and the free-falling New York Jets made me look stupid. Here’s how it looks on paper, folks. And below are my picks for Week 15.

12/12/10 Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers ATL -8 Win 41-36-0
12/12/10 Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills BUF Win 42-36-0
12/12/10 Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets NYJ -6 Loss 42-37-0

Washington @ Dallas -9 – Ryan’s Pick: Dallas

Rex Grossman is not the answer. Suspending Albert Haynesworth was not the solution. Mike Shanahan must feel like Joe Gibbs the second time around, as coaching the Redskins seems to be much more of a curse than it is a gift.

The free fall in Washington will continue today as they roll into the Lone Star State to play the Dallas Cowboys. The ‘Boys are not the 1-7 team we saw earlier in the season. They’re playing much better football. The Redskins are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games, and the quarterback change from Donovan McNabb to Rex Grossman isn’t going to help here.

Ryan’s main concern – Under their “skin”: Dallas is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games when playing Washington at home. Numbers like that will always make you think twice, but Grossman will make you think a whole lot more than that. Washington is experiencing a free fall on and off the field. As Washington “experiements” while dividing the locker room, Jason Garrett’s team is playing for pride. Take the ‘Boys.

Atlanta -7 @ Seattle – Ryan’s Pick: Atlanta

I’m a believer, and I’m taking the Falcons for the second straight week on the road. The Falcons are hot, winning their last seven games. Matt Ryan’s team dismantled the dismal Panthers last week and to be truthful, the Seahawks really aren’t that much better. They are 21st in points in the NFL and 26th in total yards. The Falcons will have no problem shutting down the league’s second-worst rushing offense.

The Falcons are 9-4 against the spread last week in the 2010 season. They’re also playing with the New Orleans Saints on their coattails. Mike Smith will not let his team falter against a dismal Seattle team. Look for Atlanta to take this game by more than a touchdown.

Ryan’s main concern – Still in it: The Seahawks play in the painfully terrible NFC West. While it tests my gag reflex, that’s the reality. Seattle is… um… challenging the St. Louis Rams to take the division, meaning they still have something to play for. Teams are always more interesting to watch when there is a potential light at the end of the tunnel. But this is also the 11-2 Falcons were talking about here. Not the matchup Pete Carroll was hoping for with the playoffs on the line.

Kansas City +3 @ Saint Louis – Ryan’s Pick: Kansas City

Matt Cassel will start for the Kansas City Cheifs today, and that is vastly important. He has 19 touchdowns and only one intereceptions in the last eight games that he’s played. The Chiefs went without him last week and only amassed 19 yards in the passing game.

St. Louis has covered the spread in three of their last five games. In the three games they covered, they played the 49ers, the Broncos, and the Cardinals. In the two games they didn’t, they played the Falcons and the Saints. Make no mistake about it, the Chiefs are closer to the latter teams mentioned than they are the former. With Matt Cassel under center, this team will be able to handle a very talented Sam Bradford and a not-too-talented Rams team. Cassel is 8-3 against NFC opponents.

Ryan’s main concern – Rams at home: Steve Spagnuolo’s team is 4-2 at home this year (They’re 2-5 otherwise). They beat the Chargers earlier in the season in the dome. The other three teams? Washington, Seattle, Carolina. Quality, not quantity folks. Take the Cheifs, or take Matt Cassel. However you want to look at it.

Enjoy Week 14!

With division titles and playoff hopes on the line, it's make or break for the Manning brothers on Sunday.

If I covered every key matchup in the NFL this Sunday, I would be writing for quite awhile.

In 16 days, we’ll know which playoff scenarios come true, and which will fade into oblivion. There are seven games in this jam-packed weekend that could give us some answers before those days are up. At the moment, the Patriots are the only team to have clinched a playoff spot. It’s almost safe to say they’ve all but clinched the AFC East as well. The other seven divisions are all up for grabs, making this the juiciest weekend of football I’ve seen in a long time.

Jacksonville (8-5) @ Indianapolis (7-6), 1:00 pm, CBS

Peyton Manning isn’t used to his back being up against the wall until at least the playoffs. He and the Indianapolis Colts will have to adapt accordingly if they want to see the playoffs at all. The Colts will see the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in their second meeting of the season. If the Colts lose to the Jags (like they did in Week 4), it will give David Garrard’s team their first division title since 1999, when current Giants coach Tom Coughlin was at the helm.

With the Ravens and the Jets unlikely to lose their Wild Card spots, the Colts have no consolation prize to rely on. The team has been plagued with injuries. 11 Colts have been placed on injured reserve including tackle Tony Ugoh, wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, safety Bob Sanders, and tight end Dallas Clark, who arguably served as Manning’s favorite target in recent years. 13 players are currently on their injury report. The inability to stay healthy is reminiscent of the woes of the 2010 Boston Red Sox. It’s just a case of bad luck.

But that doesn’t mean the team is down and out. They have lost four of their games by three points or less, and at least they were able to put an end to a three-game losing streak by squeaking out a victory against the Tennessee Titans last week.

Let’s put it this way… this whole blurb has been about the Colts. If they don’t come through on Sunday, it will be all about the Jags as Peyton Manning will be forced to sit home in January for only the third time in his storied career. Think about that for a second… wow.

Philadelphia (9-4) @ New York Giants (9-4), 1:00 pm, FOX

I love these divisional games coming in at the end of the season, especially in the NFC East, where the games just feel like they mean more than they do in other divisions. They garner more attention, they bring in high ratings, and there’s always a storyline or twelve to chit-chat about at the water cooler. Sweet…

The Birds (9-4) will take on the New York Football Giants, a team with the same record and a lot to play for in a hotly contested division and conference. The Giants will look to stop the broken record, having lost their last five against Philadelphia. And despite a strong rushing tandem in Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, the Eagles defense had their number five weeks ago, when they held them to a dismal 61 yards.

Giants QB Eli Manning leads the league in interceptions with 19, and is probably hoping that injury-ridden Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel misses his fourth game in a row. Samuel picked off Manning twice in their first meeting this season. With or without Samuel the Birds will have to play better on defense, especially in the red zone. The team ranks last in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 78.8 percent of opponents’ possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Michael Vick is ready to go, despite taking a few tough hits from defensive end Anthony Spencer in Week 14. His favorite target, DeSean Jackson, would love to repeat his four-catch, 210 yard performance last week. The Giants defense, however, have played the Eagles  a lot better than most teams this season. They held Michael Vick to only one passing touchdown in Week 10, and monster defensive end Justin Tuck had all three sacks on Vick in that matchup.

The Giants blew an early fourth quarter lead in Week 10, allowing the Eagles to score the last 11 points in a 27-17 victory. Another loss would allow the Eagles to control their own destiny, and place them in a good position to work towards a first-round bye.

But what do you say we just worry about Sunday for now?

Other BIG matchups in Week 15:

"Hey Steve, not for nothin', but I think they forgot we won last year..."

  • New Orleans (10-2) @ Baltimore (9-4), 1:00 pm, FOX: A battle of two potential playoff monsters that have done a helluva job staying under the radar. Each team is just one game back in their respective divisions. And uh, hey, did you forget that the Saints are the defending Super Bowl Champions? If so, you aren’t the only one.
  • Kansas City (8-5) @ Saint Louis (6-7), 1:00 pm, CBS: The San Diego Chargers are making their typical December push with Philip Rivers at quarterback. He is 20-1 in games in December and January, and that doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs. At 8-5, they remain one-half game ahead of the Bolts for the division lead, but that could fade away for good if the Sam Bradford-led Rams have anything to say about it. At 6-7, the Rams are still playing for something. In fact, they’re playing for the NFC West crown… and while that’s a bit sad, it’s what happens when you have four awful teams playing in the same division. Regardless, there is plenty of motivation for both teams to win on Sunday, but even more urgency.
  • Atlanta (11-2) @ Seattle (6-7), 4:05, FOX: The Rams division “foe” is the Seattle Seahawks, who share their regular season record. They, too, will playing a division leader in the seemingly unstoppable Atlanta Falcons. Maybe the only good news for Pete Carroll’s team is they aren’t playing in the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan is 19-1 as a starter. The Seahawks will need to play better defense, they give up more than 25 points a game. Ironically, that’s the same number that the Falcons score. It could get ugly fast.
  • New York Jets (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-3). 4:15 pm, CBS: The Jets are a loss away from an official free fall in the AFC. Mark Sanchez cannot complete just 39 percent of his passes again. In fact, the Jets are 11-2 when Sanchez’s passer rating surpasses 80, so it usually doesn’t take much. The Steelers, on the other hand are primed for a playoff run. They’ve won five of their last six. A little storyline to watch… Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes returns to Heinz Field for the first time since being traded. It could be interesting.
  • Green Bay (8-5) at New England (11-2), 8:20, NBC: Aaron Rodgers will likely sit out as a result of his concussion last week against the Lions. It probably wouldn’t matter anyway. Bill Belicheck is 10-0 in the snow, and guess what the forecast is calling for in Foxboro… yep.

Enjoy Week 15 folks! My “Take Three” column will be posted Sunday morning.

NFL Week 14: Take Three

Each week, I take on the sportsbooks in Vegas and make my picks in the NFL. After a quick start to the year (13-5 through Week 3), things have leveled out quite a bit. Fortunately, I’m still in the black with a 40-36 record. Don’t believe, I’ve documented every last game, which you’ll see below. But first, my picks for Week 14!

Atlanta -8 @ Carolina — Ryan’s Pick: Atlanta

I really hate going against home dogs, but this is the Carolina Panthers. They are 1-11 straight up and 3-9 against the spread. It doesn’t help that they’re playing arguably the best team in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons (10-2). The total has gone over in six of Atlanta’s last seven games, and that doesn’t bode well for the Panthers either. If there’s a lot of points in this one, Carolina won’t be scoring many of them.

Ryan’s main concern – How Jonathan got his groove back: Panthers’ running back Jonathan Stewart is getting the majority of the carries once again, taking the load off Mike Goodson. DeAngelo Williams is out for the season, and Stewart looked good last week, being a sneeze away from 100 yards and a touchdown. Stewart is a bit hard to figure out. I wouldn’t say he’s back to 2009 form, where he scored 10 touchdowns and surpassed the 1,000 yard mark, but he still remains a threat to this line in a home game.

Cleveland at Buffalo Pick — Ryan’s Pick: Buffalo

I love watching the Buffalo Bills (2-10), it’s just unfortunate that they can’t close games. They are 2-5 in their last seven, but that includes three overtime losses by a field goal and regulation loss… also by a field goal. This team’s ability to stay in games shows. They are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven games, with the only glaring ‘ATS” loss being the 38-14 blowout against the Vikings last week. This team will look to rebound, and they have the offensive weapons to do it. Stevie Johnson is the real deal, and I believe you’ll never see anything like that overtime touchdown drop against the Steelers from him again. Take Buffalo in the pick’em.

Ryan’s main concern – The other Peyton: There’s no telling what Browns running back Peyton Hillis is capable of from week-to-week. This fantasy monster has 11 touchdowns on the ground and two scores from the air. Not only is he the team’s leading rusher by far, he is tops in team receptions with 53. Make no mistake, Hillis is a gamechanger. Unfortunately, for the Browns, he’s the only one on their entire offense.

Miami @ New York Jets -6 — Ryan’s Pick: New York Jets

Rex Ryan and the New York Jets (9-3) embarrassed on Monday Night Football, and the Miami Dolphins (6-6) are not the New England Patriots (10-2). Losing a close game to Cleveland last week, the Dolphins couldn’t get their offense going at any point, with Brandon Marshall and Brian Hartline sidelined and ineffectiveness at quarterback. Even if Marshall plays, he hasn’t been the player we’ve seen in Denver, with only one receiving touchdown this year. He’ll also be stuck on Revis island… not looking good.

The Jets defense will be on point today, and may have a little help from the inclement weather expected. Mark Sanchez, despite the criticism often directed his way, has been more good than bad in his sophomore year. I expect the running game to take over with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene (in that order), and Santonio Holmes is always capable of making a big play.

Ryan’s main concern – Nothing to report: I expect the Jets to win this game by way more than six points. This has the potential to be the mismatch of the week.

And without further adieu, my betting record for 2010. Enjoy Week 14!

Date Game Decision Result Record
9/9/2010 Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints MIN +6 Win 1-0-0
9/12/2010 Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills MIA -3 Win 2-0-0
9/12/2010 Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears DET +6.5 Win 3-0-0
9/12/2010 San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks SF -3 Loss 3-1-0
9/12/2010 Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins WAS +4 Win 4-1-0
9/13/2010 Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets BAL +1 Win 5-1-0
9/14/2010 San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs KC +6 Win 6-1-0
9/20/2010 Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings Over 41 Loss 6-2-0
9/20/2010 Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers GB -14 Win 7-2-0
9/20/2010 Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns KC +3 Win 8-2-0
9/20/2010 Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers Under 45 Loss 8-3-0
9/20/2010 New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts IND -5.5 Win 9-3-0
9/27/2010 Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers CIN -3.5 Win 10-3-0
9/27/2010 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB +3 Loss 10-4-0
9/27/2010 San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Cheifs SF -3 Loss 10-5-0
9/27/2010 Philadelphia Eagels @ Jacksonvile Jaguars PHI -3 Win 11-5-0
9/27/2010 New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins NYJ +2.5 Win 12-5-0
9/28/2010 Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears CHI +3 Win 13-5-0
10/3/2010 Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns CIN -3 Loss 13-6-0
10/3/2010 Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints NO -14 Loss 13-7-0
10/3/2010 Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars IND -8 Loss 13-8-0
10/3/2010 Chicago Bears @ New York Giants Over 44.5 Loss 13-9-0
10/4/2010 New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins NE -1.5 Win 14-9-0
10/10/2010 New York Giants @ Houston Texans HOU -3 Loss 14-10-0
10/10/2010 Kansas City Cheifs @ Indianapolis Colts IND -1.5
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals NO -1 Loss 14-11-0
10/10/2010 Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins GB -3 Loss 14-12-0
10/10/2010 Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys Under 43 Loss 14-13-0
10/10/2010 Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers PHI + 3.5 Win 15-13-0
10/17/2010 Detroit Lions @ New York Giants DET + 10 Win 16-13-0
10/17/2010 Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles PHI -3 Win 17-13-0
10/17/2010 Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears CHI -7 Loss 17-14-0
10/17/2010 New York Jets @ Denver Broncos NYJ -3.5 Win 18-14-0
10/17/2010 Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Redskins IND -4 Loss 18-15-0
10/24/2010 Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens BAL -14 Loss 18-16-0
10/24/2010 Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears WAS +3 Win 19-16-0
10/24/2010 Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans PHI -3 Loss 19-17-0
10/24/2010 Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks ARI +7 Loss 19-18-0
10/24/2010 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins PIT -3 Loss 19-19-0
10/31/2010 Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals MIA Win 20-19-0
10/31/2010 Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs KC -7 Loss 20-20-0
10/31/2010 Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets GB +6 Win 21-20-0
10/31/2010 Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders OAK -3 Win 22-20-0
10/31/2010 Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers TEN +11.5
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots MIN +12 Win 23-20-0
10/31/2010 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints PIT +1 Loss 23-21-0
11/7/2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons TB +9.5 Win 24-21-0
11/7/2010 Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders KC Loss 24-22-0
11/7/2010 New York Jets @ Detroit Lions DET +5.5 Win 25-22-0
11/7/2010 Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Over 42.5 Win 26-22-0
11/7/2010 Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles IND Loss 26-23-0
11/7/2010 Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers Over 46 Win 27-23-0
11/14/2010 Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX -1 Win 28-23-0
11/14/2010 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears MIN – 2.5 Loss 28-24-0
11/14/2010 Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills DET +1.5 Loss 28-25-0
11/14/2010 Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos KC -1.5 Loss 28-26-0
11/14/2010 New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers NE +4.5 Win 29-26-0
11/14/2010 Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins PHI -3 Win 30-26-0
11/21/2010 Washington Redskind @ Tennessee Titans WAS +7 Win 31-26-0
11/21/2010 Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers OAK +7 Loss 31-27-0
11/21/2010 Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals BUF +5 Win 32-27-0
11/21/2010 Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Over 50 Win 33-27-0
11/21/2010 New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles PHI -4 Win 34-27-0
11/25/2010 New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Over 50 Win 35-27-0
11/25/2010 Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets CIN +10 Loss 35-28-0
11/28/2010 Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins WAS +2 Loss 35-29-0
11/28/2010 Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons GB +1.5 Loss 35-30-0
11/28/2010 Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns CLE -10 Loss 35-31-0
11/28/2010 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears PHI -3.5 Loss 35-32-0
11/28/2010 St. Louis Rams @ Denver Broncos STL Win 36-32-0
11/28/2010 Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders OAK -3 Loss 36-33-0
12/2/2010 Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles Over 51.5 Win 37-33-0
12/5/2010 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans JAX +3 Win 38-33-0
12/5/2010 Washington Redskins @ New York Giants WAS +7 Loss 38-34-0
12/5/2010 Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Over 43.5 Win 39-34-0
12/5/2010 New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN Loss 39-35-0
12/5/2010 Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 43 Loss 39-36-0
12/5/2010 Saint Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals STL -4 Win 40-36-0
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